Posted: Wed Oct 05, 2022 10:26 pm Post subject: Re: War in Ukraine?
Putun promotes Kadyrov to colonel-general, despite his critics over operation in Ukraine. Major Russian TV shows aired out with hard critics too. Seems like there will be drastic staff changes in Russian army and ministry of defense, may be even today. Likely the full mobilization with million draft also will be announced. The signals from tail finally reached dinosaur mind...may be.
Posted: Wed Oct 05, 2022 10:42 pm Post subject: Re: War in Ukraine?
Right now i`m in Belarus, and here are also changes. Lukashenko several days ago, suddenly both for his supporters and opposition, admits on TV Belarus participation in Russian operation in Ukraine. Also, here is huge campaign, including central media, about hiring more professional soldiers into army. Seems like Lukashenko understand, that if Russian army in Ukraine collapsed, he is an obvious next target for Ukraine, cause attempts of invasion into Belgorod region was already repulsed twice, and Crimea geography will once again in history pose a serious obstacle for potential invader from mainland. A new offence into Ukraine from Belarus territory will change the gameplay radically.
Posted: Thu Oct 06, 2022 3:01 am Post subject: Re: War in Ukraine?
I have been waiting for the flanking attack by Russia from north via Belarus since very beginning of war. Belarus is not very reliable partner and their troops won't die for this. Maybe Russia can outmaneuver Ukraine. But it's same issues, dependence on Conscripts, inability to secure air superiority, heavy losses. Ukraine also ready they also have reserves waiting.
Posted: Thu Oct 06, 2022 7:53 am Post subject: Re: War in Ukraine?
This is an incredible humiliation for Putin and one of the greatest military blunders of all time. This is obvious and the systemic failure of the Russian military has been obvious from about 3 to 6 days after the conflict began.
There is a lot to speak about.
I have often been sympathetic towards Russia and hostile towards the United States but things changed once Putin committed to the Invasion. Another thing that has changed my perspective is Donald Trump and their right-wing attack on Western civilization, if I may be so dramatic... I have a cousin who is a white supremacist. He would disagree with the title but it's bassicly true. He is a Steve Bannon, Vladimir Putin & Stefan Molyneux kind of idealogue and despite their rhetoric, they are really an enemy of Western civilization and its best values. This is very ironic when you think about it.
I have been through my ''Fuck the west'' stage but I have matured over the years and I have seen these agitators in action... and its not fun to watch...
Ukraine is not perfect, but the arrogance, dysfunction, ruthlessness, and lackluster performance of Russia's military and more broadly, Russian society, is remarkable.
It was amusing to see the right-wing ideologues deny that this was a military and strategic blunder from the start. They were unable to recognize the facts because of their ideology.
Putin and his supporters are clearly suffering from a condition that the excellent historian of German battle formations of the eastern front, David Stahel, termed for the Nazis. He called it ''National socialist military thinking''.
National socialist military thinking is used to describe the incredible phenomenon of problems the Nazis had from Operation Barborosa onwards. They were unable to see problems and exhibited huge failures of rationale and basic military logic.
Their arrogance and ideology prevented them from being rational.
Putin and his war kind of echo this in many ways. He has CLEARLY made a huge mistake and it's gone REALLY badly since day 1.
He underestimated Ukrainian National identity, resolve to fight etc. He fell for the trap of thinking ''Yeah but we are so great and everyone will tremble in our might'' even though that is not the case.
The good PR for his middle east offensive probably gave him false confidence.
He fell into the trap of thinking his opponents were inferior. The ''lazy decadent west'' notion was a major assumption that the Japanese and Germans made in WW2, as a factor in their thinking, in relation to war with the United States. Putin and Russian militarists have done the same when it comes to testing the resolve and unity of the world's democracies. This is a problem in the future as they look at their nuclear options.
It would seem like Putin is no military guy... or even knowledgable of military matters... or history... or... for some reason he thinks he is immune...
Putin reminds me of a war gamer who hasn't been tested but is playing a VERY powerful country, he is untested but has committed to pulling the trigger and going to war. The gamer is frustrated because he is supposed to be very powerful but keeps getting his ass kicked.
In an act of rage, stubbornness, and desperation he impulsively clicks ''Enact mobilization'' while being completely ignorant of the game's crippling ''dissent'' mechanic.
I think Putin is a very romantic guy.
His war from the start, and what it exposed earlier on, is a perfect demonstration of ''The folly of dictator''. He seems to have met every pitfall with flying colors, working as, almost a case study.
It's no surprise considering the position he was in... HECK, Trash Reality TV star Donald Trump was president of the United States and then attempted a coup, lol! That and the dysfunction, corruption, division, bickering, and dissent in western society, now would of seemed like the perfect time to strike.
I think Russia is also in a curious geopolitical situation where they are running on a timetable where they are stuck in a cycle of stagnation, in conjunction with declining demand for oil, where economic ruin is in their future if they maintain their current economic model.
They are a weak oil state and Ukraine has excellent oil infrastructure from previous generations as well as oil beds. So, its kind of a oil war... that's my understanding. Anyway-
When the war started I said ''Putin is just a lofty and romantic guy who has the same level of thinking and morality as myself when I'm playing video games''.
When I play video games my morality, sharpness, and thinking are different than in real life.
So in a game of hearts of Iron, I would just take Ukraine so I can make my country bigger on the map. Thats because I treat video games differently from real life In video games, I can be pretty psychopathic, sometimes even ruthless and I hold the (AI) human life in lower regard.
Often to my detriment but hey!
Maybe that's what happening here with Putin?
Before I go too hard on Putin, I should maintain that the United States is partially responsible for this war. People lose their minds when I say this and I have had people bite my head off for saying this.
With that said, my sympathies for Russia going to war only extends, so far as my sympathies to America's position when it comes to things like ''spheres of influence''. That being- close to none at all but we should try to be realpolitik about this.
Many have not and a hostile action causes a reaction.. and so the cycle continues...
__________
So I support Ukraine.
I'm not Ukrainian, but if I was Ukrainian, based on emotion and pure rage from the audacious assault, I would probably take the position that we fight to the last man. Making them pay for the assault- would be the top priority.
I can imagine the rage would blind me so much that I would want to fight a war of revenge.
Peace means we take Moscow + 244,000 metric tons of gold is to be delivered to Kiev by midday 7th of October. If it's 1 hour late then the deal is off and war continues. No negotiations. If I was mad enough I would start publicly taunting that they could try using nuclear weapons. Take delight in the fact that this is their last resort and even then, they're still fucked.
I think that's why I wouldn't make a good leader/politician. Anger can do that sometimes.
Russia has committed way more war crimes during this war and as an act of frustration, anger, and lack of military capability, they resorted to simply bombing the fuck out of civilian areas. This is not surprising but still reprehensible.
Russia's morale is bad and has been so since the start.
Bad discipline, logistics, leadership, command, and equipment.
I think every dollar the US spends on military aid is a dollar well spent for themselves, the world, and global peace & democracy but we should acknowledge the grossness and arrogance of contributing to the conditions of the war
in the past and then stimulating the US military structure now.... It would seem wrong to not mention that...
Posted: Thu Oct 06, 2022 8:10 am Post subject: Re: War in Ukraine?
Quote:
Why would the Ukraine invade Belarus?
1. Already Belarus participation, as Lukashenko admits
2. Already Ukraine participation in attempts of overthrown Lukashenko, in 2015 and in 2020.
3. No nuclear shield
4. Western pressure to do it (already attempts to overthrow/bribe Russian allies, like Kazakhstan)
The government of Belarus, I assume, based on my understanding, is kind of a house of cards. Relatively speaking... I have wanted to visit the country in the past but I haven't. I would still like to learn more about the place.
Belarus is home to one of Europe's last vestiges of a time gone by. It's often called one of the last remnants of the Soviet Union. As Europe's last dictator he is in a precarious position in terms of maintaining power.
Even though I think a Ukrainian threat to Belarus remains VERY low, they still fucked up by supporting an aggressive neighbor. The entire front they launched the invasion from has collapsed.
I'm not sure I would care if I was an average Belarusian but from a geopolitical and an old-school authoritarian dictators perspective this is kind of a disaster.
I don't know how unstable the government is or how strong the dissent is among the country's population but the state is in more of a precarious position if they want to continue as a Russian satellite state.
So far there is no sign that Ukraine wants to fight outside of a war of defense, so to speak, e.g a war of payback against Belorus but clandestine actions and pressures against Belarus for their aggression may happen in the future.
The crazy part of me would want revenge if I was Ukraine but fortunately, it doesn't seem like Zelensky is completely crazy.
Right now i`m in Belarus, and here are also changes. Lukashenko several days ago, suddenly both for his supporters and opposition, admits on TV Belarus participation in Russian operation in Ukraine. Also, here is huge campaign, including central media, about hiring more professional soldiers into army. Seems like Lukashenko understand, that if Russian army in Ukraine collapsed, he is an obvious next target for Ukraine, cause attempts of invasion into Belgorod region was already repulsed twice, and Crimea geography will once again in history pose a serious obstacle for potential invader from mainland. A new offence into Ukraine from Belarus territory will change the gameplay radically.
Wow, whats it like?
If you don't mind me asking, what are you doing there?
What is the mood like?
Posted: Thu Oct 06, 2022 6:10 pm Post subject: Re: War in Ukraine?
Signs of preparation to war present, including Cold War-era bomb shelters restoration and test of public warning systems, never heard for me in last 12 years visiting Minsk. I'm here for business trip, with Belorussian partners we trying to re-schedule several projects stalled due to shortages of staff after spring exodus in both our countries. Lukashenko, like Putin, probably have only choice of bad moves. He is not beloved by many people here, but what will happen after more direct incursion into war nobody can predict here. Belarus army probably even less prepared for real war as was Russian, but already played 'army in being' role to secure flanks of russian army near Kyiv at spring.
Posted: Thu Oct 06, 2022 9:57 pm Post subject: Re: War in Ukraine?
I think its natural and the correct move for any neighboring countries of Russia and Ukraine to bolster defenses, increase defense spending and conduct drills.
Will Ukraine invade Belarus? I would say no. With the caveat being, if Belarus builds up forces on its border for what looks like an imminent attack into Ukraine, I could see Ukraine attacking into these forces but without the goal of annexing territory. This could be done without troops on the ground.
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Passing over it in summer, i was wondered, how, with both sides of bridge full of anti-missile defenses, the central arc was illuminated like its peace time. Also, while from Taman side there was a strict searches of cars, including canine unit, control from Crimea side was much simpler.
Wondering, which 'tough' reaction from Moscow will follow. Another protests in UN, like with Zaporizhya power plant? Or finally someone grab the head out of ass and decide, that Kyiv already have too much bridges, lets reduce their numbers.
Command of Kantemirovskaya division, praetorian guard from soviet times, dischaged. Guards shown underperformance in spring offence, some of its lost armor, captured by Ukrainians, was later taken back by DPR militias, who send the tanks to postal address of division by rail. It took long for Kremlin to understand impossibility of keepeing such command in charge.
Major question in Russia is will the ministry of defence Shoigu resign. Yes, he is a long Putin's fellow, but there are clearly times for changes.
Jokes about Stalin's army purges of 1930s are welcome. Especially about no needs of such, cause in Red Army everything was OK, like now.
Posted: Sat Oct 08, 2022 4:47 pm Post subject: Re: War in Ukraine?
One Russian General had the balls to tell Putin the truth. He told Putin how the war isn't going well and how Russian army is retreating. After telling Putin this, he said I will go ahead and show myself to the window.
Until now I guess the two main factors in the war's course are the Ukrainian superiority in manpower and the Russian strategic blunders.
Yes the manpower disparity is one of primary factors of Russia's failure. I would disagree with the other reason, it's more precisely Dysfunctional command structure. For example, lying to their own troops during the initial invasion saying it was "Special Operation" and worse lying about Nazi's in Ukraine as justification.
The Business world often suffers from similar dysfunctional leadership. Pervasive culture of cronyism and fear paralyzes organizations to where leadership is terrified to tell the truth out of fear of reprisals or getting fired. And it can get so bad lower level leaders mask the truth and manipulate data to frame a false narrative to tell their bosses what they think would please them. Clearly Russian military suffers greatly from Putin's culture of cronyism.
It's not just the manpower advantage but how efficiently implemented. Ukraine seems to have made good use of home guard troops with mandatory service of young adult males. Many had no experience and are trained well.
Also Ukraine is highly motivated defending their homeland. The more nuclear taunts, bombing of civilians, genocide, war crimes committed by Russia, the more it will unite Ukraine and make them want to fight back.
Posted: Sat Oct 08, 2022 7:06 pm Post subject: Re: War in Ukraine?
Quote:
It's not just the manpower advantage but how efficiently implemented.
I disagree. While Russian army has no offences, except from Avdeevka, and also with no WWI-trenchline fronts, Ukraine was free to choose where to strike. So for more than month they tried in different areas, getting losses in process, but, thanks for Russian command stupidity and lack of resources, they was allowed to quickly transfer troops from place to place (only rarely russian side tried to made obstacles for such movements, like with infamous 'civilian' train in Chaplino). So it was about time, when they will find a hole. Tactically, that was also nothing blessing, including 'human waves' tactics already mentioned by you.
Posted: Tue Oct 11, 2022 3:56 am Post subject: Re: War in Ukraine?
Now Belarus proxy Putin-state is threatening to enter war. Already 2 "volunteer" battalions serving with Russian forces. Only 60k active duty another 300k reservists considered to be very poor quality military. Russians might use more for staging area. Belarus is very poor welfare state dependent on Russian support.
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In video games, I can be pretty psychopathic, sometimes even ruthless and I hold the (AI) human life in lower regard.
