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mooxe

Rep: 175.9
votes: 23


PostPosted: Sun Mar 02, 2014 10:23 pm Post subject: The Ukraine Reply with quote

I am following this one as best I can from Canadian news outlets and the BBC.

From what I gather Russia has seized control of Crimea to protect its citizens in Crimea. Since Crimea is a province or territory of the Ukraine, many countries including the Ukraine are saying this is basically an act of war. I would agree with that. If this doesn't seem wrong to you yet, take this example and apply it to any other two countries sharing a border.

I suppose Russia is going to try and bring Crimea back under Russian control, as it lost it years ago. The Ukraine has to get Russian to pull out of Crimea. Politically or by force, hopefully politically. Third option is to split up the Ukraine, would Crimea join Russia or become its own country? Statistics say about 60% of Crimea's population identify themselves as Russian. If the Ukraine tries to take back Crimea by force, would the citizens turn on the Ukrainian military? Becoming a sort of militia like we see in the Middle East conflicts.

Chechnya is not far away. If this blows up into a conflict it will be as disastrous as Chechnya was and destabilize the region.

I think Russia has over stepped its bounds by seizing Crimea. If their intentions were to only protect citizens then this could be acceptable. But its obvious that they will use this as a way to split up the Ukraine and potentially bring Crimea back under Russian control. The most they should of done was a military buildup across the border.
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Stwa

Rep: 308.9
votes: 16


PostPosted: Mon Mar 03, 2014 1:07 am Post subject: Re: The Ukraine Reply with quote

Well, I won't say that I am happy about all these possibilites that you just enumerated.

But, I do know that I already have a nice Russian counter set for CCMT.

So maybe I will add a Ukraine counter set, and do something similar to my Arab Spring mod.
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Tejszd

Rep: 122.5
votes: 19


PostPosted: Mon Mar 03, 2014 1:32 am Post subject: Re: The Ukraine Reply with quote

Protecting a minority has been used many times as an excuse/reason (depends on which side you support) to attack/take land from a neighbor country...
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Drizzt

Rep: 114.3
votes: 9


PostPosted: Mon Mar 03, 2014 1:53 am Post subject: Re: The Ukraine Reply with quote

Crimea, historically speaking, it’s part of Russia (something like from 200 years until 1954 and substantially also later). The russian president is an oligarch like many others in the area (I really don’t like him), but he is a leader: I think he will defend russian interests and it’s difficult for me, in this specific situation, to say that he makes a total mistake. A thing that let me think it’s the fact that Ukrainian president has been elected (he was not a dictator, just an oligarch) so Crimean government, after his fall, it has taken its decisions.
Anyway, after the end of the real socialism, the “shadow” of a (potential) oligarchy it’s present also in all western democracies thanks to a capitalism poor of good rules because, finally, remained without any kind of fears (differences between left and right parties diluted more and more plus this kind of UE = neoliberal economic doctrine always rules despite elections, like an oligarchy regime). So I’m sure no more if we (europeans) have the right to judge Russia, not after what we have done in Greece (“we” = European Union) recently. Having said this, if there will be a real war (and not a political solution) the reasons of both sides will become very, very weak at the end.
Of course, it’s just my opinion.

Drizzt
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johnsilver

Rep: 61.4
votes: 4


PostPosted: Mon Mar 03, 2014 4:10 am Post subject: Re: The Ukraine Reply with quote

Putin is going to do what he wants to do. There will be little to no repercussions from this, at east in the short term. Understand many of the fellow members here are European, but the governments there are as weak as Obama has made the US. It might as well be Neville Chamberlain waving a piece of paper.

I would hope it's been obvious the last few years that the US is pulling the protection it gave from every corner of the world, one area at a time. I expect NATO's time will come if he gets around to it in the next 3 years, or if another Obama act alike becomes president. It's what you get with a hands out population.

Hope didn't offend anyone with this, wasn't my intention and really hope that the entire world wakes up soon as to what is coming.


PeG-WW2 Campaigns Page
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Bungarra

Rep: 100.6
votes: 4


PostPosted: Mon Mar 03, 2014 4:31 am Post subject: Re: The Ukraine Reply with quote

Gold price jumped $20... this morning... bit of nervousness about...
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Dima

Rep: 87.3
votes: 16


PostPosted: Mon Mar 03, 2014 6:41 am Post subject: Re: The Ukraine Reply with quote

For now we still have less troops in Crimea than allowed by Kharkov agreement for the Russian base in Sevastopol.
We'll see how it goes though. Too much lies coming from all the sides to make good judgements.
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AT_Stalky

Rep: 27.4
votes: 10


PostPosted: Mon Mar 03, 2014 11:12 am Post subject: Re: The Ukraine Reply with quote

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Dima

Rep: 87.3
votes: 16


PostPosted: Mon Mar 03, 2014 5:31 pm Post subject: Re: The Ukraine Reply with quote

Some nice articles to help understanding background a little Smile
http://www.newrepublic.com/article/116818/russia-has-always-thought-eastern-ukraine-russian-land
http://jackmatlock.com/2014/03/ukraine-the-price-of-internal-division/#more-629
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Dima

Rep: 87.3
votes: 16


PostPosted: Mon Mar 03, 2014 5:40 pm Post subject: Re: The Ukraine Reply with quote

Doesn't really look too much of an invasion basing on these photos:
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10152689818938902&set=pcb.10152689820193902&type=1&theater
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Tippi-Simo

Rep: 53.1
votes: 5


PostPosted: Mon Mar 03, 2014 6:47 pm Post subject: Re: The Ukraine Reply with quote

There is no such thing as Ukrainian independence (that is a Western creation to weaken Russia). Ukraine has always been part of Russia.


"Du talar dalig svenska, men du är bra i sängen"
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Pzt_Crackwise

Rep: 64.9
votes: 1


PostPosted: Tue Mar 04, 2014 12:04 am Post subject: Re: The Ukraine Reply with quote

Some of modern Ukraine has belonged to Crimean Khanate before, which was an Ottoman vassal and some of it was possessed by the Polish-Lithuanian commonwealth. So it has not belonged to Russia always.
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Dima

Rep: 87.3
votes: 16


PostPosted: Tue Mar 04, 2014 12:31 am Post subject: Re: The Ukraine Reply with quote

Pzt_Crackwise wrote (View Post):
Some of modern Ukraine has belonged to Crimean Khanate before, which was an Ottoman vassal and some of it was possessed by the Polish-Lithuanian commonwealth. So it has not belonged to Russia always.

Yes, Russia first conquered the Crimean Khanate and then annexed Poland and those were the Russian kings who first added alot of Polish territory to Ukraine starting since 17th century and then the Soviet leaders (starting from Lenin) who gifted more area to Ukraine as beeing part of USSR.
http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=210886&d=1386643518
 
So I wonder if these guys are so bold to demolish the statues of Lenin, maybe they should give the area gifted by Lenin back to Russia?
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pt11070

Rep: 15.6
votes: 1


PostPosted: Tue Mar 04, 2014 2:35 am Post subject: Re: The Ukraine Reply with quote

I just hope that cooler heads prevail. In war everybody is at loss. At this point there is still hope for political solution, but there is a lot geopolitical back and forth between Russia and EU/USA that has little to do with Ukraine. Looking back to what happened to Yugoslavia and the way that was done, I really hope that cooler heads prevail. So much life lost and so much future destroyed by the conflict.
Pt
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mooxe

Rep: 175.9
votes: 23


PostPosted: Tue Mar 04, 2014 2:19 pm Post subject: Re: The Ukraine Reply with quote

Well it seems like its calming down today according to Western media. Theres a lot political wording being thrown around, for example...

Unconstitutional Coup - Aren't they all unconstitutional?
Military force as last resort - Military force was already used, deadly force is now the last resort

Sure it doesn't look like an invasion by those photos Dima. What do you call it when troops from one nation enter another? Occupation? Peace keeping? If the Ukrainians put up any type of defense at the border it would of been an invasion right? Instead they were either surprised or would'nt call Russia's bluff.

The troops in those photos are doing presence patrols if I were to guess. Some have no mags on their weapons, some do. I would even gamble that they do not have live rounds loaded in the magazines either, but they would have some in their tacvests. But to the general public, those are infanteers with guns. The posing with civilians reminds me very much of Bosnia days.
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johnsilver

Rep: 61.4
votes: 4


PostPosted: Tue Mar 04, 2014 5:20 pm Post subject: Re: The Ukraine Reply with quote

How many in the former Eastern Block states, as well as in Europe now would like to see their old favorite whipping boy/girl leaders in Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagen, over Socialist and ultra liberals like have been mostly elected to office since the fall of the iron curtain?

Encroachments like this on sovereignty of an independent state more than likely wouldn't have gone mildly unchallenged under a moderate leader just 6 years ago. Europe has learned (or should have) after what happened with Syria several months ago that they are going to have to build up a common military buffer on the East side, once again at least short term and not be able to count on any support from the out side for assistance. This is not good considering they have several members teetering on bankruptcy already.

Kind of off topic, but does this lead to Germany being the new lead member of this block as they are in the best financial support and being one of the closest in danger?


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TTorpedo

Rep: 23.5


PostPosted: Tue Mar 04, 2014 7:45 pm Post subject: Re: The Ukraine Reply with quote

Its always difficult to understand this affairs from the distance. Specially from a country where the borders are 900 years old and  every piece of terrain as a wall around it.

It looks like another step from Russia to re-take their hold place at the table. After the Georgia affair, backing Syria, now is Crimea.  All success in their book.

My main concern is since Crimea is being so easy to take they just might take the eastern Ukrainian half and, worse, encourage one of the other notorious bully's, China, to up their game in the China Sea.
Europe as usual is in conversations, until Germany (my bet) will jump ship and push their "OK".
All rests in how mush is the US (the other bully) willing to let go.

In the mean time the XXI century called to say it´s already 14.
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southern_land

Rep: 142.4
votes: 14


PostPosted: Wed Mar 05, 2014 4:34 am Post subject: Re: The Ukraine Reply with quote

The lowdown is the Russians are looking for WMDs... the US couldn't find them in Iraq, maybe they're in the Ukraine
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Stwa

Rep: 308.9
votes: 16


PostPosted: Wed Mar 05, 2014 7:00 am Post subject: Re: The Ukraine Reply with quote

WMDs are like fruitcakes. You hear about them, and you might see a picture of them, but you never see them in "person".
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Dima

Rep: 87.3
votes: 16


PostPosted: Wed Mar 05, 2014 8:16 am Post subject: Re: The Ukraine Reply with quote

Quote:
Sure it doesn't look like an invasion by those photos Dima. What do you call it when troops from one nation enter another? Occupation? Peace keeping? If the Ukrainians put up any type of defense at the border it would of been an invasion right? Instead they were either surprised or would'nt call Russia's bluff.

Our troops are only in Crimea where our Naval base is and where 60% of population are Russians. Officially they provide security and peace keeping and were asked to do that in Crimea by both president Yanukovitch (who's fled to RF) and the Parliament of the Crimean Autonomy and as you can see most of the people is happy with their presence.

Here they talk that we are not going to annex Crimea but most likely to have it as full autonomy region within Ukraine under controll and protection of RF.
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