Posted: Tue Aug 01, 2023 3:53 am Post subject: Re: War in Ukraine?
Today Zelensky admitted to striking Russia going on offense. Also Wagner troops have been spotted in Belarus training with Russian special forces. But still not clear what happened to their leadership. Wagner still operating in Africa now spreading to Niger after Coup there.
Posted: Sun Sep 10, 2023 1:40 pm Post subject: Re: War in Ukraine?
I'm returned from NK, it was...strange.
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Me thinks you work on behalf of Russian government like for a defense company? You seem to travel often to China or North Korea or other Russian business partners. I already admitted to working for the US Government as vendor key supplier. Although I currently do not support Defense agency clients in my new job role, but previously did 15 years and before then too at different job. Especially since you claim to be former military (Soviet or RF army??). Defense companies prefer to hire former military I am sure in Russia, no different than here.
I served military in Russia in 90-s. Happily, did not reached the battlefields, despite there was more than enough of them in 'free, liberated' Yeltsin`s Russia. That days long in past, although i keep some friend from that time.
Visits to China and NK all in business needs. Although it is hard to draw a line between govt and economy in Russia, my company have zero direct contracts to govt, exactly because of security clearances and overwhelming bureaucracy in such contracts. With sanctions nearly all western (and even some chinese) vendors leave Russian market, so there are issues in finding a replacements. Also was ceased most of economy links with Ukraine, what, despite all the previous 9 years and claims by both sides, was still relatively large, especially in some areas. Russian business is very interested in replacements, like outsourcing and pools of cheap labor. We are capitalist dogs BTW. China have more than enough industry to replace western supplies, like already totally replaced car makers from West and South Korea. NK have some interesting domestic industry as well, and a lot of qualified personal, largely in virtual employment, when people work on useless workplaces created by govt to fulfill proclaimed right to work. Also, both countries are large potential markets to sell russian production, especially NK (Kim's like to lower their dependency on China).
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Did you hear about secret Peace Negotiations that your ambassador attended with United States?
Thats all BS, media noise all sides buzzing out in order to hide the notorious truth: there is no win. And never will. Exactly like was with Afghanistan: win just give no gains, period. And the result will be the same: one side will give up, leaving the other fully in shit and in probably inevitable troubles to itself in nearest future. Although Ukraine is much closer to 'golden billion', and sides are more willing to waste resources into 'victory' (reminder, how a victory actually looked like: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ja5Q75hf6QI )
Posted: Sat Sep 16, 2023 5:33 pm Post subject: Re: War in Ukraine?
Welcome back Comrade...that's a very long business trip. Care to elaborate why NK is "strange"? That is our perception of them here...like a culture stuck in the past, failed Communist state that never lived up to the true ideological ideals of neither Marx nor Lenin. Although I suppose they don't really care about true iteration of Communist state, rather their own selfish autocracy and Orwellian state to suit their needs. The stories we hear of NK starving and lacking food appear authentic based on reports Russia will help in exchange for artillery or other trade.
Can I ask what type of goods/services your business provides? I personally work in technology sector. And yes same thing here...security clearances at Defense agencies are crazy expensive. Even though I never had security clearance I still was allowed to call staff anyways at least 100 times over the years. And even the big shots we with clearances aren't allowed near the sensitive areas, they might be allowed to enter the building and go to vendor conference areas but that's about it. And 100% there is moving target with layers bureaucracy that are manipulated and often written in very biased ways. Yeah everyone and their uncle wants cheap sweatshop labor and pretends not to know about slave labor conditions. Despite that China's economy in deep trouble...only reason they get so much business is due to the capitalist dogs whom want more money for themselves and easier access to supply chain raw materials.
Agreed...there is no "end game" in Ukraine. Putin thinks he can win prolonged war of attrition. Ukraine still holding the momentum for now with new German tanks and aircraft. But Russian defenses three layers deep in some locations extremely difficult for Ukraine to advance this time. The "offensive" never managed to gain much. But Russia still suffering from dysfunctional command structure. Do you believe Prigozhin was really killed? He had a "double"...and why would he dare to go to Moscow and board a flight with FSB eyes all over the airfield? After viewing the video, 100% looks like bomb disabled the plane...if missile strike, the plane would have disintegrated on impact.
Posted: Sun Sep 24, 2023 7:27 pm Post subject: Re: War in Ukraine?
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Care to elaborate why NK is "strange"?
Thats demand a separate thread. I will try to translate my field notes and impressions, although this will took time.
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Can I ask what type of goods/services your business provides?
I work in IT/computer science area. More like a businessman though for last decade that as a tech specialist - our area have harsh demands to participation in competence races.
Agreed...there is no "end game" in Ukraine. Putin thinks he can win prolonged war of attrition. Ukraine still holding the momentum for now with new German tanks and aircraft.
the trouble is way deeper. Russia, probably, can made more gains of Ukrainian territory, but it will not help it not from strategic point of view - Russian command interested in shortening the front, not widening, nor in economic - there are already more than enough territories to digest. Before NK i visited some new Russian lands like Henichesk and Melitopol - that actually helped me to prepare for NK, even while that territories was captured without fight at all - it just VERY undeveloped and for decades was kept in negligence. It will took years for Russian business to incorporate them into Russian economy even with no more war. War for Ukrainian territory doesn't pay off, for both sides - Ukraine have exactly the same troubles with territories returned in 2022 and mostly prefer to just evacuate the remains of population, leaving it as 'no man land'. Broadside, current state of war are well proceed for big money douchebags from both Russia and West - made missiles for military, made counter-missiles for military, military uses it, military comes for next missiles. Can only wonder, what can change the course of war in any foreseeable times.
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Do you believe Prigozhin was really killed?
Yes, he was killed. Likely revenge from military for coup attempt and 'callaterial damage'. For Russia its a great loss, which most are still underestimate. But probably OK for Putin. Prigozhin not needed now - look above, no need for advance in Ukraine, and Putin prefer 'cellophane rats' instead of true leaders, as was clearly shown in LPR/DPR in previous 9 years.
The most interesting part now is an Armenia's give-up to Azerbaijan. That was exactly a reason for Putin to attack first in 2022 - otherwise there was no hope to defend his disputed chessboard cells, like Armenia was unable to defend Karabakh, waiting for Azerbaidjan first move - and the international reaction actually was and is truly priceless in dimension of double standards.
Posted: Fri Oct 13, 2023 3:46 am Post subject: Re: War in Ukraine?
Yes please post more information about why you felt North Korea was strange. It is like cut off from the rest of the world, with almost no media access. Funny you are like me, I'm in sales in the IT industry...like a businessman also.
Well from my understanding the Ukrainian peoples do not want to leave their local villages and towns even in no man's land due to their homes being there. I don't know much about home or land ownership in Ukraine, but it seems like insurance is impossible to get and if you are average family they will fight or even die as civilian rather than surrender their property or land. Ukraine is extremely poor so this also contributes to this stalemate and the local populations resistance to Russia. I believe that most Ukrainians feel they have better economic opportunity being partners with EU and the West instead of go back to being annexed by Russia like USSR times. In fact this is largely what led to the overthrow of Yanukovych puppet regime because he refused to allow Ukraine to have economic partnerships with the West to please Putin.
And yes almost zero media coverage of the war against Armenia it is over now. Instead now we have the Hamas invasion of Israel as the "other" war distraction from Ukraine. Kind of good for Putin because the West's media attention completely ignoring Ukraine now, like nothing whatsoever mentioned in news. Israel always has to be ready to fight because surrounded by neighbors whom hate them. What do you think would be good for Russia with the Hamas war vs Israel? Syria might be interested in fight with Israel...maybe. But they are exhausted from constant civil wars within Syria. Also many Russian Jew citizens apparently in Israel, not sure if Putin cares much about them or not.
Posted: Fri Oct 27, 2023 7:13 pm Post subject: Re: War in Ukraine?
Rare two-side footage: https://t.me/RVvoenkor/53549 - from russian drone https://t.me/RVvoenkor/53763 - from bodycam of Ukrainian soldier. Russian soldier outflanked ukrainian positions, last Ukrainian soldier at the end tried deception, crying 'I surrender' but preparing a hand grenade, though Russian soldier did not took a risk and shot him at back preemptively.
The war course are very similar to Pakistan - India intercourse: while in 2014 soldiers from both sides had some respect to each other, like India and Pakistan army in 40s, now its a very harsh war, with mercy be an extravagance that both parties cannot ever afford.
Posted: Fri Oct 27, 2023 8:14 pm Post subject: Re: War in Ukraine?
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Yes please post more information about why you felt North Korea was strange.
I will make a topic about, when will sort the things out.
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I believe that most Ukrainians feel they have better economic opportunity being partners with EU and the West instead of go back to being annexed by Russia like USSR times. In fact this is largely what led to the overthrow of Yanukovych puppet regime because he refused to allow Ukraine to have economic partnerships with the West to please Putin.
Thats the holy cow of all the post-Soviet area - that friendship with West will made people live way, or at least certainly better. Like with all Chimeras, priests of this idea have extreme difficulties to show a 100% example of it. Form all the countries i`ve visited in past, only Poland showed some clearly visible differences with Soviet era, even in small towns - but, as usual, questions about price was outcried 'heresy' by priests (although tons of signs 'constructed with the help of EU' tells some truth for watchful traveler), and people with whom i had a conversations there said many things opposed to Warsaw-declared prosperity.
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And yes almost zero media coverage of the war against Armenia it is over now. Instead now we have the Hamas invasion of Israel as the "other" war distraction from Ukraine. Kind of good for Putin because the West's media attention completely ignoring Ukraine now, like nothing whatsoever mentioned in news.
I'm personally view a lot about Ukraine in news when engage VPN. As usual, 99% are about constant Ukrainian wins, with probable signs of Moscow on the horizon for Ukrainian troops. Nothing changed, media shitpipe works perfectly. Like in Russia, of course.
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What do you think would be good for Russia with the Hamas war vs Israel? Syria might be interested in fight with Israel...maybe. But they are exhausted from constant civil wars within Syria. Also many Russian Jew citizens apparently in Israel, not sure if Putin cares much about them or not.
Syria is not ready to fight even for lands, occupied by Turks and US. Several Russian citizens was massacred at HAMAS attacks on Oct 7, and died in shelling later. Some was captured and there is some undercover work about their release. Putin`s opposers, who fled to Israel, made a usual great performance in running from Israel too, Navalny, with all of his drawbacks, certainly consists of rarely hard materials unlike common russian oppositioner composition.
For Putin propaganda double standards in media coverage Israeli war comparing with Ukraine are gifts, but, with both Oceania and Eastasia carefully isolating own populations from 'enemy' media, that gifts are for little trade, because Africa or Asia itself can count examples from their own history for hours. But this war only confirms what i tried to tell during all of this topic: with current tech level the only way to capture a city, defended by enemy army, is to bomb it to the bricks and ash, what IDF proceeds well for now.
Considering 'Clarissa Ward' issue. Twice in my life i lived in Israel for several months, visiting relatives and doing some job. Some of relatives leaved USSR in 60-70s had military service and even participated in some wars. They tells me a story, that in 80s, after bad campaign in Lebannon, Israel military built a training city, remodeling part of real Palestine town, common place for conflict during 'intifadas'. Model city was used for close-to-life trainings of IDF soldiers, with realistic imitations of traffic, crowds by actors, gunfight, even causalities (using manikins or amputee actors). At some point military, instead of troublesome and intensive bringing reporters (that time local near-military ones) to real battlefields start to bring them into trainings in model. Even people with some military experience was hard to differ between training and real place, and, furthermore, nearly all the reporters was diverted to that training camp. GPSs was rare until 00-s, and model city was built not much long from real place it mimics. Funny things happen later, in some 90s IDF bombed the original town and demolished the prototype. But, to laugh for vets with knowledge, news from never existed anymore place was still in TV for some years more, until renovation of training camp. This is likely a city legend, but, during hot phase of Syrian war there was too many reports about 'studios' and 'props' in Egypt and Jordan, dedicated for filming Damask, Aleppo, Idlib or even Raqqa 'disasters'. So the joke about CNN may had a many layers behind.
The whole plan of the big counteroffensive was based on simple things: a Muscovite sees "Bradley", "Leopard" - and runs away. All. "Guys, you're going to wind them up there!"
Good plan. Nearly as good as Russian plan in february of 2022.
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A friend from Galicia first called me Fritz in 2016. And it took root. I have never hidden that I am half German. You know, I have a family of "anti-Soviets": some were in the Hitler Youth, others in the UPA. And everyone met in Siberia, from this love my mother was born.
Posted: Fri Dec 29, 2023 4:30 am Post subject: Re: War in Ukraine?
All quiet on the Ukraine Front? Still very cryptic media focus on the war here in US. The media is still totally obsessed with Israeli invasion of Gaza. Also because we have very large Jew and Muslim immigrant populations in the US especially here in California. I have seen very little if any media coverage of Ukraine war since October. Even if Trump "wins" his dictatorship next year and no more US aid, Europe actually sends more aid than US anyway. Not clear if that would have much impact. Plus the German tanks are better regardless for this region, less maintenance, more simple to operate and won't get stuck in the mud as much.
Still no Nazi's found in Ukraine after 2 years, I would have thought they would have found some by now. And it turns out that Navalny is not dead after all? Allegedly got transferred to Arctic remote prison. We were told Nalvany went "missing" right after Putin announced he will win the election again with his 80% approval rating. Putin will serve in office longer than any other Russian since Josef Stalin.
Posted: Sat Dec 30, 2023 5:57 am Post subject: Re: War in Ukraine?
Good video. I agree with his comments made this month (per wikipedia) "Reisner warned early on against underestimating the Russian armed forces. In December 2023 he stated: "From a neutral perspective, the situation is serious. The West has to understand that. Is it ready to support Ukraine? Then it has to do more. If it is not ready to do that, then it has to communicate that. This miserable purgatory currently only brings more deaths, but no result."
6:47 is the key point he nailed it. Just like the Germans from late 1943 to end of war...Ukraine has hopeless chance to challenge Russian air superiority yet alone try to send helicopters on tactical support. Russians still dominate air superiority. Urban close combat is better conditions for Ukraine won't be easy prey from air attacks.
Posted: Sun Dec 31, 2023 6:06 pm Post subject: Re: War in Ukraine?
Ukraine is estimated to have less than 100 fighters remaining that's no match for Russian Air Force. At best they can launch a few intercepts or try to hold air cover for local battle for a brief time, similar to what the Germans did in WW2. Now allegedly F-16's will be sent by European neighbors, it took waaaaay too long. Presumably they did not want to risk escalation into broader conflict with reprisals by Putin. To Reisner's point above, this is a half-ass attempt to "help" Ukraine, doing them no favors with ancient relics that were destined for the scrap yards soon anyway. Perhaps slightly better than old Soviet era leftovers.
To your point, I think Russia has been very cautious not to attempt annihilation of entire Ukraine Air Force due to fear of heavy losses. Ukraine air defenses seem to be holding Russian Air Force in check somewhat.
Posted: Wed Feb 21, 2024 5:26 pm Post subject: Re: War in Ukraine?
Two strange deaths happened recently.
In Spain was killed russian pilot, who deflected to Ukraine past september - https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/20/world/europe/russian-pilot-maksim-kuzminov-spain.html
Act by Russian GRU is most obvious version, but 'erasure' by Ukrainian GUR for me is more likely - 500 000 USD is a too big money to pay to someone, who is not from Zelensky 'crew'. Also, russian secret services shown not good performance with such tasks in past. In any way, zero regrets about traitor's death - two from his crew was unarmed and shot point blank, maybe by Kuzminov himself - https://russian.rt.com/russia/article/1206626-mi8-pogibshie-intervyu
Second strange death - one of famous russian fighter against Ukraine since 2014 commit suicide: https://dzen.ru/a/ZdXH2vmsyBRtfKq0 He was bullied by state media for TG post about high losses in Avdiivka and virtually unopposed Ukrainian retreat (post: https://t.me/ghost_of_novorossia/20452) . He leaved strange last message https://t.me/wehearfromyanina/3495 about being forced by command to STFU under threat of cut from ammo supply (here we can remember Prigozhin's claims about the same).
Posted: Fri Feb 23, 2024 4:06 pm Post subject: Re: War in Ukraine?
About Kuzminov: a deserter during war (especially if his defection caused the killing of 2 crewmates) deserves capital punishment in any army.
Although some sources say that his death was not official but work of criminals: Kuzminov went to hide in an area of Spain where there are a lot of Russian mobsters living.
In any case, the widows of his two crewmates surely have some consolation.
Posted: Sun Feb 25, 2024 6:19 pm Post subject: Re: War in Ukraine?
Agreed, there is no doubt that Russian Govt sent assassins to kill the helicopter pilot in Spain. Disagree that Russia secret services not having good performance. Likely they also killed Mikhail Gorbachev due to his public opposition to Ukraine invasion. I don't believe it was coiciedence and the telltale sign was when Putin refused to offer Mikhail a proper State funeral ceremony, showing his flagrant contempt. Especially considering Putin clearly shows ambition to re-create the old Soviet Union. And everyone knows Navalny was also murdered by Secret Service...also notably after they transferred him to very remote prison presumably for less witnesses and easier to control.
The most famous assassination by Russian secret service was that of Leon Trotsky, going all the way to Mexico hunt him down with ice axe. Another more recent example was here in America, attempted reprisal killing of another defector Aleksandr Poteyev in 2020 that was nearly successful. The "Vodka" man Alexander Smirnov was just re-arrested after being let out of jail with ankle monitor. Lucky for him as almost guaranteed they would have tried to kill him also since he had contact with Russian Intelligence in November and likely has comprising info that puts Russian operatives in danger.
Posted: Mon Feb 26, 2024 2:57 am Post subject: Re: War in Ukraine?
And the theory about "Russian mobsters" responsible for the helicopter pilot defector's death is plausible. Putin has learned how to consolidate power by forming alliances with some not all Russian mafia. In fact this is how he met Prigozhin and gave him opportunity in exchange for loyalty. So basically it could have been a contract syndicate killing by state sponsored mafia gangsters. Also some killings within Russia were mysterious like classic mobster power struggle. The Nazi's also had many criminal thugs in their ranks that were able to rise to power within the Party system in exchange for loyalty.
Posted: Mon Feb 26, 2024 9:03 pm Post subject: Re: War in Ukraine?
If Russian secret services be effective on 10% of western claims, Zelensky and top of his command already should be long in past. As well as some of US generals with too long tongues, you know, crime in US are so high, that there should be no US general who goes to sleep without wondering if get their throat slit in the middle of the night.
And i`m pretty sure, that Russian mafia in Spain will easily do the job for Ukrainian GUR for 10% of 500 000 USD bounty proposed to Kuzminov.
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