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paratmar

Rep: 28.2
votes: 3


PostPosted: Mon Oct 31, 2022 4:30 pm Post subject: Re: War in Ukraine? Reply with quote

mooxe wrote (View Post):
What's Russia's estimate on how much it will cost to rebuild the Ukraine, assuming they win the war and take over the country?

Does it make sense to be destroying the infrastructure of a country you want to take over?

No no no! this won't be our problem for a while. First, let the remnants of Ukraine hang around the neck  and on the feet of their sponsors, but then we'll see ....))) IMHO.
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mooxe

Rep: 214.8
votes: 25


PostPosted: Mon Oct 31, 2022 9:22 pm Post subject: Re: War in Ukraine? Reply with quote

paratmar wrote (View Post):
mooxe wrote (View Post):
What's Russia's estimate on how much it will cost to rebuild the Ukraine, assuming they win the war and take over the country?

Does it make sense to be destroying the infrastructure of a country you want to take over?

No no no! this won't be our problem for a while. First, let the remnants of Ukraine hang around the neck  and on the feet of their sponsors, but then we'll see ....))) IMHO.


I dont understand what you are saying.


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paratmar

Rep: 28.2
votes: 3


PostPosted: Tue Nov 01, 2022 5:57 am Post subject: Re: War in Ukraine? Reply with quote

mooxe wrote (View Post):
paratmar wrote (View Post):
mooxe wrote (View Post):
What's Russia's estimate on how much it will cost to rebuild the Ukraine, assuming they win the war and take over the country?

Does it make sense to be destroying the infrastructure of a country you want to take over?

No no no! this won't be our problem for a while. First, let the remnants of Ukraine hang around the neck  and on the feet of their sponsors, but then we'll see ....))) IMHO.


I dont understand what you are saying.
It's because your original question was worded incorrectly. 1. Who said that we want to capture Ukraine? Personally, I do not want this) and have not heard this from those who make real decisions in Russia.
2. In my humble opinion, the remnants of Ukraine, which have not yet voluntarily become part of other states, should be supported by those who promised it this and are already investing billions. For at least a year or at least this winter, as minimum.
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paratmar

Rep: 28.2
votes: 3


PostPosted: Tue Nov 01, 2022 8:24 am Post subject: Re: War in Ukraine? Reply with quote

Ukraine in this game is a consumable and a tool to achieve the goals of global players. Ukraine as a whole is waiting for poverty, devastation, impoverishment of the people, depreciation of the national currency, rising prices for everything, including tariffs. This is my forecast for future years. Alas, the Ukrainians have chosen such a role for themselves.
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JFFulcrum

Rep: 70.7


PostPosted: Tue Nov 01, 2022 9:21 am Post subject: Re: War in Ukraine? Reply with quote

mooxe wrote (View Post):
What's Russia's estimate on how much it will cost to rebuild the Ukraine, assuming they win the war and take over the country?

Does it make sense to be destroying the infrastructure of a country you want to take over?

There was no public digits about whole Ukraine. Just Donbass recovery was estimated as 1.5 trillion rubles BEFORE SVO: https://www.gazeta.ru/politics/news/2022/02/21/17325553.shtml

The costs of recovery was likely reason, why Russia refrained for so long from strikes at vital energy and logistics infrastructure. But, now there are other considerations:

Firsts, we need to win a war, by somehow.
Second, as i'm already explan, there will be EU-like policy for captured parts of Ukraine, with not much need for infrastructure for agrarian low-industry country.
Third, in 2014 there was a big prize of Soviet-era industry giants, even after 20+ years of independent prosperity, Ukraine still had some gems in aerospace, shipbuilding, military industry, 'Antonov', 'Yuzhmash', 'Kharkiv tank plant', 'Motor Sich' and so on. But, thanks to Maidan and careful new Ukrainian govts reforms (on West tight supervision), nearly all that industry fall into bankrupt and stone rubble even without bombings. Now, that prize is gone, and not much to care about left in Ukraine.
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dj

Rep: 149
votes: 9


PostPosted: Wed Nov 02, 2022 3:41 am Post subject: Re: War in Ukraine? Reply with quote

JFFulcrum wrote (View Post):
https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2022/10/25/sp-md-remarks-at-the-international-expert-conference-on-recovery-of-ukraine
 
- Ukraine already consumed 35 Bil USD of 'help'
- Ukraine will cost for West around 5 Bil USD/month just to keep in place
- Ukraine have absolutely no prospects of earn that money by itself in foreseeable future = irredeemable debt for centuries
- All the hopes are on Russia's sudden give up.


Doesn't make sense Comrade, not understanding.  So the war is Free for Russia and good return on investment for the Russian people?  How is this only expensive for one side?  

Many decades of military occupation of Warsaw Pact nations against the will of local peoples also was not free.  It was extremely expensive on Soviet Union contributing to its failure.

This is extremely little money for the West.  If if your puppet Trump has another Coup and America stops aid, many other nations in Europe provide aid to Ukraine.  Or even foreign fighters whom volunteer their own personal $.
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JFFulcrum

Rep: 70.7


PostPosted: Wed Nov 02, 2022 1:56 pm Post subject: Re: War in Ukraine? Reply with quote

Quote:
So the war is Free for Russia and good return on investment for the Russian people?  How is this only expensive for one side?

Well, for now war was paid well by West itself, with sky-rocketed prices for energy and chronic greed of oil traders, especially in East Europe - by one hand giving 'help' to Ukraine, with other hand making maneuvers to sold russian oil and gas for both russian and their profits.

Quote:
Many decades of military occupation of Warsaw Pact nations against the will of local peoples also was not free.

Yeah, that people very liked Hitler (and their domestic little Hitlers), who thrown them into war like wood into fire, and now they like US and EU, despite stripping them down in 90s and using in same way as Hitler or USSR did - buffer zone and source of cannon fodder for big war. The only difference is slightly better wealth (but USSR already hold their wealth above the average soviet level, and we will soon watch, how much of this donated, not earned wealth will be preserved in already started economic storm).

Quote:
This is extremely little money for the West.  If if your puppet Trump has another Coup and America stops aid, many other nations in Europe provide aid to Ukraine.  Or even foreign fighters whom volunteer their own personal $.

Yes, like i'm many times previously agreed, that this money are just sprays of US military budget. US is a rich country, so its citizens will not so demanding in realizing, that their taxes are wasting into many black holes named 'US foreign politics'. But even FRS have its limits and, thanks for miriad sanctions and things like https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/activity:6991284867875356672 , other world will more and more drift from US dollar anal probe, and will be more and more troubles with US debt. Europeans are not so rich and already asking questions, why their earned wealth is leaking to war on demand of US big brother (and his puppet local politicians).
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paratmar

Rep: 28.2
votes: 3


PostPosted: Wed Nov 02, 2022 4:01 pm Post subject: Re: War in Ukraine? Reply with quote

Unlucky attack - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gW0dz6PAqSI&ab_channel=%D0%96%D0%B5%D0%BB%D0%B5%D0%B7%D0%BD%D1%8B%D0%B9%D0%A4%D0%B5%D0%BB%D0%B8%D0%BA%D1%81
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JFFulcrum

Rep: 70.7


PostPosted: Wed Nov 02, 2022 4:22 pm Post subject: Re: War in Ukraine? Reply with quote

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/russia-agrees-rejoin-ukraine-grain-deal-rcna55184
 
Face palm.
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Bungarra

Rep: 131.8
votes: 5


PostPosted: Thu Nov 03, 2022 4:02 am Post subject: Re: War in Ukraine? Reply with quote

As far as Russias economy is concerned ISW had this in their report today.....

Russian force generation efforts combined with Western sanctions are having long-term damaging effects on the Russian economy, as ISW has previously forecasted. Financial experts told Reuters that the Kremlin will face a budget deficit that will “drain Moscow’s reserves to their lowest level in years” due to projected decreases in energy revenue, sanctions, and the cost of Russian mobilization.[1] One expert predicted that payouts to mobilized men including social benefits may cost the Kremlin between 900 billion rubles and three trillion rubles (around $14.6-$32.4 billion) in the next six months. The number does not account for payouts to other categories of servicemen within the Russian forces such as BARS (Combat Army Reserve), volunteer battalions, and the long-term commitment to veterans' payments to contract servicemen, volunteers, non-military specialists who moved to occupied territories, and proxy fighters.[2] ISW previously estimated that one volunteer battalion of 400 servicemen costs Russia at least $1.2 million per month excluding enlistment bonuses and special payments for military achievements.[3]

The Kremlin is continuing to rely heavily on financially incentivizing Russians to fight in Ukraine, which will likely continue to strain the Russian economy for decades. Russian officials have been promising salaries to volunteers and mobilized men that are more than twice the average Russian civilian salary before and during Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.[4] The Kremlin has been attempting to deflect part of the cost of the force generation effort onto Russian federal subjects but will likely need to tap into the federal budget more heavily soon. United Russia Party Secretary Andrey Turchak, for example, stated that Russian servicemen from all regions must receive uniform benefits and noted that the federal government must cover the difference if the federal subject is unable to fully compensate all participants of the “special military operation.”[5] Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) Head Denis Pushilin even acknowledged that there are insufficient measures in place to support mobilized personnel and their families in occupied Donetsk Oblast during a United Russia meeting.[6]

The Kremlin is already facing challenges in delivering promised compensation, challenges that are increasing social tensions within Russian society. Russian Telegram channels released footage of mobilized men in Ulyanovsk protesting payment issues.[7] Other footage from the Chuvashia Republic shows a presumably Russian local official yelling at protesting mobilized men that she had not promised them a payment of 300,000 rubles (about $4,860).[8] Families of mobilized men publicly complained to Voronezh Oblast Governor Alexander Guseyev that they have not received promised compensation of 120,000 rubles (about $1,945).[9] The Kremlin will need to continue to pay what it has promised to maintain societal control and some resemblance of morale among Russia’s ad hoc collection of forces. ISW has also reported that the Kremlin is igniting conflict within Russian military formations amalgamated from different sources by offering different payments, benefits, and treatment.[10] Social media footage from October 31, for example, showed a physical fight between contract servicemen and mobilized men reportedly over personal belongings and military equipment.

All may not be as well as you think on the home front.....


You know if you don't live it.... You can't give it.
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paratmar

Rep: 28.2
votes: 3


PostPosted: Thu Nov 03, 2022 11:40 am Post subject: Re: War in Ukraine? Reply with quote

Bungarra wrote (View Post):
As far as Russias economy is concerned ISW had this in their report today.....

Russian force generation efforts combined with Western sanctions are having long-term damaging effects on the Russian economy, as ISW has previously forecasted. Financial experts told Reuters that the Kremlin will face a budget deficit that will “drain Moscow’s reserves to their lowest level in years” due to projected decreases in energy revenue, sanctions, and the cost of Russian mobilization.[1] One expert predicted that payouts to mobilized men including social benefits may cost the Kremlin between 900 billion rubles and three trillion rubles (around $14.6-$32.4 billion) in the next six months. The number does not account for payouts to other categories of servicemen within the Russian forces such as BARS (Combat Army Reserve), volunteer battalions, and the long-term commitment to veterans' payments to contract servicemen, volunteers, non-military specialists who moved to occupied territories, and proxy fighters.[2] ISW previously estimated that one volunteer battalion of 400 servicemen costs Russia at least $1.2 million per month excluding enlistment bonuses and special payments for military achievements.[3]

The Kremlin is continuing to rely heavily on financially incentivizing Russians to fight in Ukraine, which will likely continue to strain the Russian economy for decades. Russian officials have been promising salaries to volunteers and mobilized men that are more than twice the average Russian civilian salary before and during Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.[4] The Kremlin has been attempting to deflect part of the cost of the force generation effort onto Russian federal subjects but will likely need to tap into the federal budget more heavily soon. United Russia Party Secretary Andrey Turchak, for example, stated that Russian servicemen from all regions must receive uniform benefits and noted that the federal government must cover the difference if the federal subject is unable to fully compensate all participants of the “special military operation.”[5] Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) Head Denis Pushilin even acknowledged that there are insufficient measures in place to support mobilized personnel and their families in occupied Donetsk Oblast during a United Russia meeting.[6]

The Kremlin is already facing challenges in delivering promised compensation, challenges that are increasing social tensions within Russian society. Russian Telegram channels released footage of mobilized men in Ulyanovsk protesting payment issues.[7] Other footage from the Chuvashia Republic shows a presumably Russian local official yelling at protesting mobilized men that she had not promised them a payment of 300,000 rubles (about $4,860).[8] Families of mobilized men publicly complained to Voronezh Oblast Governor Alexander Guseyev that they have not received promised compensation of 120,000 rubles (about $1,945).[9] The Kremlin will need to continue to pay what it has promised to maintain societal control and some resemblance of morale among Russia’s ad hoc collection of forces. ISW has also reported that the Kremlin is igniting conflict within Russian military formations amalgamated from different sources by offering different payments, benefits, and treatment.[10] Social media footage from October 31, for example, showed a physical fight between contract servicemen and mobilized men reportedly over personal belongings and military equipment.

All may not be as well as you think on the home front.....
It is more objective to read and then refer to Russian sources, and not to their English interpretation). Here's an example - https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/15131964/2-31102022-AP-EN.pdf And in Russia, inflation over the past 5 months, the lowest monthly inflation in Europe. I confirm this as a consumer and a resident of Russia))).
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JFFulcrum

Rep: 70.7


PostPosted: Thu Nov 03, 2022 3:38 pm Post subject: Re: War in Ukraine? Reply with quote

The story behind claims of resign of army gen.[url=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aleksandr_Lapin_(general)]Lapin[/url]  : https://tsargrad.tv/articles/neudobnaja-pravda-ob-otstavke-generala-lapina-o-chjom-ne-skazal-kadyrov_656112  
While there are still no official confirmations, seems like Kremlin became tired of underperformance on Ukrainian front, while critics of Lapin, Kadyrov and Wagner group founder, are backed by relatively good performance of their troops on battlefields.
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dj

Rep: 149
votes: 9


PostPosted: Sun Nov 06, 2022 7:32 pm Post subject: Re: War in Ukraine? Reply with quote

paratmar wrote (View Post):
mooxe wrote (View Post):
What's Russia's estimate on how much it will cost to rebuild the Ukraine, assuming they win the war and take over the country?

Does it make sense to be destroying the infrastructure of a country you want to take over?

No no no! this won't be our problem for a while. First, let the remnants of Ukraine hang around the neck  and on the feet of their sponsors, but then we'll see ....))) IMHO.


You are seeing this from the lenses of Russian State Media propaganda which indoctrinates the Russian people (at least about 50% that believe the lies).

When Putin financed Viktor Yanukovych regime including payments for political consultation from American Paul Mannafort that is not double standard?  You do realize that Paul Mannafort was Trump's official 2016 campaign manager and received salary from Putin of $400,000 USD per year.  This is a fact.  So the pro-Putin puppet regime controlled by Yankukovych also had American sponsors paid for by Russian Government.

Also it is quiet obvious that Putin attempts to copy-cat American extremist talking points.  Putin copies Tucker Carlson's culture war, disinformation and victimization memes.  Putin repeats culture war talking points to blame Russia's opponents on Transgenders and especially on alleged "cancel culture".  Complete rubbish, Transgender people account for less than 1% of population.  The vast majority of the west still have traditional values.  If Putin rounded up the 1% oftransgender peoples in Ukraine and Russia combined and killed or imprisoned them all, then whom could Putin blame for all his problems???
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paratmar

Rep: 28.2
votes: 3


PostPosted: Mon Nov 07, 2022 5:56 am Post subject: Re: War in Ukraine? Reply with quote

dj wrote (View Post):
paratmar wrote (View Post):
mooxe wrote (View Post):
What's Russia's estimate on how much it will cost to rebuild the Ukraine, assuming they win the war and take over the country?

Does it make sense to be destroying the infrastructure of a country you want to take over?

No no no! this won't be our problem for a while. First, let the remnants of Ukraine hang around the neck  and on the feet of their sponsors, but then we'll see ....))) IMHO.


You are seeing this from the lenses of Russian State Media propaganda which indoctrinates the Russian people (at least about 50% that believe the lies).

When Putin financed Viktor Yanukovych regime including payments for political consultation from American Paul Mannafort that is not double standard?  You do realize that Paul Mannafort was Trump's official 2016 campaign manager and received salary from Putin of $400,000 USD per year.  This is a fact.  So the pro-Putin puppet regime controlled by Yankukovych also had American sponsors paid for by Russian Government.

Also it is quiet obvious that Putin attempts to copy-cat American extremist talking points.  Putin copies Tucker Carlson's culture war, disinformation and victimization memes.  Putin repeats culture war talking points to blame Russia's opponents on Transgenders and especially on alleged "cancel culture".  Complete rubbish, Transgender people account for less than 1% of population.  The vast majority of the west still have traditional values.  If Putin rounded up the 1% oftransgender peoples in Ukraine and Russia combined and killed or imprisoned them all, then whom could Putin blame for all his problems???
Putin Putin Putin Putin Putin .... it feels like Putin is Almighty!) I have not heard about Putin as often as here or anywhere before))). probably because in Russia they don’t idolize this ordinary top manager). By the way, here are the interesting channels of fellow countrymen Bungarra, a little offtopic, but maybe someone will be interested in how they live in different regions of Russia). Moscow - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NyOxyuSOuQ8 and Siberia - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0bO5eI-xhRQ
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Bungarra

Rep: 131.8
votes: 5


PostPosted: Mon Nov 07, 2022 11:49 pm Post subject: Re: War in Ukraine? Reply with quote

Wouldn't mind a supermarket like that around my corner...

Bit different going to whats left of a supermarket in Kyiv its still standing..

But it doesn't change my opinion that Ukraine is Ukraine

Same as Russia is Russia.

Both have a right to exist in peace...

Too many people have lost their lives and been misplaced for nought.

Unfortunately the die is cast for centuries to come no matter what the outcome.

Its just a very sad state of affairs, one everyone could have done without.... we all are suffering from its effects one way or another.


You know if you don't live it.... You can't give it.
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JFFulcrum

Rep: 70.7


PostPosted: Tue Nov 08, 2022 11:17 am Post subject: Re: War in Ukraine? Reply with quote

Quote:
When Putin financed Viktor Yanukovych regime including payments for political consultation from American Paul Mannafort that is not double standard?  You do realize that Paul Mannafort was Trump's official 2016 campaign manager and received salary from Putin of $400,000 USD per year.  This is a fact.  So the pro-Putin puppet regime controlled by Yankukovych also had American sponsors paid for by Russian Government.


Ah, here we go again. In urgent need one rotten apple was found, who trade US policy for anyone who pay, like hundreds others, but had some connections to Russia and Ukraine, so dems can blame Trump in whatever. They feed 'Steele dossier' to auditory and that butt-heads happily begin chewing it, not asking questions about, how many such people as Manafort in D.C., and what people was around dems, which money flows into dems campaign and what promises was deal in process. We can guess that was only true democratic countries, wanting only preservation of nature of course.
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dj

Rep: 149
votes: 9


PostPosted: Wed Nov 09, 2022 4:01 am Post subject: Re: War in Ukraine? Reply with quote

Which part of my statement was not correct?  Mannafort's role and employment sought by Russian state had nothing to do with Steele dossier.  Your government did hire Paul Mannafort to help groom Yanukovych puppet regime. The bank accounts and evidence don't lie, he was found guilty and went to jail.  Also Mannafort received "loan" from Oleg Deripaska for $10M USD, which he never paid back.  Russian Government plays both sides of America, calling us the enemy while hiring Americans to serve pro-Putin Ukraine syndicate state. Or playing Tucker Carlson segments frequently on Russian state television.
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JFFulcrum

Rep: 70.7


PostPosted: Wed Nov 09, 2022 3:39 pm Post subject: Re: War in Ukraine? Reply with quote

You missed the point. Mannafort takes money from whoever, even if that was a devil himself. And he is not alone. And foreign governments purchase such people in regular way, for years. The last time independent candidate was elected in Congress happens in 2014. The US have no democracy, have duopoly instead. And do you know, what it means? Saudi Arabia have two major oil companies. One finances GOPs, one Dems. So Arabia interests are secured independent from election outcomes. Same do Israel, China (including Taiwan), Ukraine, and yes, Russia too. Is a Canadian Uranium One Clinton's affair completely forgotten?
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JFFulcrum

Rep: 70.7


PostPosted: Wed Nov 09, 2022 3:41 pm Post subject: Re: War in Ukraine? Reply with quote

Mean time the long-awaited given up of Kherson city happens - https://www.rt.com/russia/565869-russia-withdrawal-troops-kherson/ . Putin will have a hard times to explain it to people. Will watch state TV shows today, just to obtain pleasure from signs of confusion on talking heads, although nothing will compare with shows of 24.02...
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Berger

Rep: 30.2
votes: 3


PostPosted: Wed Nov 09, 2022 7:36 pm Post subject: Re: War in Ukraine? Reply with quote

Huh, I'm pro-russian and I'm sure Russian high command has more information than me but it doesn't seem like a winning move. I hope I'm wrong.

My impression is that Russia from the beginning is conducting the war at half throttle instead of going full throttle.

And that is a mistake because meanwhile NATO-EU are sending billions in aid and weapons and training ukrainian units in UK and Western Europe. The more time passes, the more the Ukrainian army grows stronger

I think Russia must take drastic measures and use all the cards that Russia has and Ukraine does not. For now leaving ukraine in the dark and without energy is a right step that should have been taken earlier

Better to be too harsh dealing with Banderites than too weak.
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